美发布新报告:应对中国挑战!

杜佳   2021-01-30 17:05  

2020年11月17日,美国国务院政策规划办公室发布了《中国挑战的方方面面》,分析中国对美国的挑战,阐述美国的应对策略,提供政策建议。 (美国国务院, 2020)

这个政策规划办公司,笔者已经有所讨论。这个机构在美国的对外政策建制中占有重要地位,它的第一任主任乔治·凯南的“长电报”被认为是美国发动冷战的理论基础。2018年,时任主任斯金纳提出将中美的矛盾上升到“文明的冲突”的高度,一时间引发美国内外惊诧。

在笔者看来,这份报告90%延续了川普政府的一贯做法。政策规划办公室带着意识形态的有色眼镜,将中国打成“信仰马列主义”的“威权主义国家”,在处理国家事务时有“霸权主义野心”,处处与美国为敌。

笔者甚至认为,这份报告是蓬佩奥亲自撰写的。

在这个前提下,中国仿佛做什么都是错的。在香港维护法律与秩序叫“镇压自由”,维护国家统一叫“恐吓民主的台湾”,发展经济全靠“大规模知识产权盗窃”,在南海维护国家主权则属于“不顾国际仲裁法庭判决”的违法行为。

因此,有媒体称,这份报告看透了中国,是“新凯南电报”。

然而报告里又有大概10%的部分符合民主党的口味。报告反对美国单边行动,表示要联合盟友,维护所谓“以规则为基础的国际秩序”,似乎要纠正川普政府这4年来不断退群、不断得罪盟友的做法。

到了2020年11月,川普因败选即将离任,国务院高层这种“一朝天子一朝臣”的地方,在本届政府的最后的时间发布这样一个报告,这件事情本身就足够引发关注。

难道本届美国政府的国务院,还想指导下一届拜登政府的对华政策吗?或者说,华府精英对美、中关系的认识已经滑落到如此地步,他们认为民主党一定会接受蓬佩奥的国务院的政策建议,仅仅提一下“国际规则”就算是有所改善了?

带着这个问题,我们采访了麦克·戈贝尔(Michael Gobbel)。他是德国人,在罗马尼亚驻伦敦大使馆、欧洲议会和美国参议院有过工作经历,可谓“身经百战、见的多了”。2019年以来他在北京大学读公共管理硕士,对太平洋两岸的事务都有不少了解。

戈贝尔对拜登政府上台后的美、中关系政策持正面看法。即使是这个报告,也说了要讲国际规则嘛。在这方面,美国和中国有不少可以合作的地方,有不少共同利益。

戈贝尔认为,美国以往对待中国的方法有问题,总是强迫中国接受美国的观点,一厢情愿地认为中国会发生美国所希望的那种变化。下届美国政府必须意识到不能把自己的意志强加于中国。美国需要首先应对国内事务,然后在互相尊重的基础上,平等地对待中国。

以下是采访实录:

问: You mentioned thatyou took the intern job in the U.S. Senate in 2018. Would you share some of your experiences in the Senate? As a European, howdid you apply the job in the Senate?

你提到你曾在美国参议院做实习工作,请问你能分享一下你在参议院的工作经验吗?你是欧洲人,如何去美国的参议院工作?

答:People sometimes ask me how I got into theSenate as European.Quite simple, I’ve studied in Chicago and have applied foran internship with the local Senator. I've worked five months in Chicago andthree months in Washington. My work focused on immigration and on bankinglegislation. I was certainly lucky and am forever grateful for the chance tosee how the US government works as a foreigner.

这是第一个问题。通常大家都会问我一个欧洲人是怎么进入美国参议院的。其实原因很简单,我在芝加哥学习的时候就申请当地参议员的实习工作。我在芝加哥工作了5个月,华盛顿这边工作了3个月,我的工作基本上是和移民和银行立法相关。我非常幸运,作为一个外国人有机会窥探美国政府运作,我很感激。

问:Did you work forDemocratic Senators or Republican Senators?

请问你当时是为民主党参议员,还是共和党的参议员工作?

I worked for SenatorDick Durbin of Illinois and Cortez Masto of Nevada. They were both Democrats.I've applied to Republicans as well, because I'm not party affiliated, but theydidn't get back to me. So I guess my views are not Republican approved.

是的,我为伊利诺伊州参议员迪克·杜宾(Dick Durbin)和内华达州的科尔斯特·马斯托(Cortez Masto)工作。他们都是民主党的。因为我本人没有什么党派倾向,所以我也尝试申请过共和党的工作,但是他们没有给我回复。所以我猜想自己可能并不是他们想要的人。

InChicago, interns had to talk mainly to constituents. People were calling about legislative issuesand we had to give them information. Interns were the frontline for callers.

在芝加哥,实习生主要的工作是和选民交流。他们会打电话来咨询法律问题,我需要回复他们并给出信息。实习生处于电话交流的前线。

In Washington, I hadto go as well to meetings and committee hearings and write memos about policyissues.

在华府,我需要去参加会议或者委员会的听证会,然后就政策议题写备忘录。

问:Do you have a planto go back to America and apply for more Congress jobs?

请问你今后还会去美国吗?继续在国会工作?

答:Yes,afterwards I would like to go to law school and maybe continue my work inWashington. A lot of people in government are lawyers. In contrast to China,where there are mostly engineers. Maybe the US could need more engineers ingovernment as well. I really don’t know what the future will holdfor me. The immigration system in the US is tough. If I get a job visa or not,I will stay in the US for a while. Otherwise, I will go back to Germany orChina. I really like China.

是的,我之后可能会尝试申请去法学院学习法律,然后继续我在华盛顿的工作。有很多政府人员都需要是律师。在中国,大部分官员是工程师。我觉得美国的政府也需要一些工程师。我不知道自己未来会是什么样。并且美国对待移民也较为严格,如果我能拿到一个工作签证,我会留下来。如果不行我就回到德国,或者去中国。我还是非常喜欢中国的。

问:Will you go back toChina and finish your study at Peking University?

那今后你会来中国吗?来北京大学完成学业?

答:Thatdepends. The virus is still raging in Europe, and we are still not allowed toenter. At the first occasion, I will hop on a plane and go back to China. Let’shope the vaccine will speed things up.

那得看情况。病毒仍在欧洲肆虐,我们还不允许进入中国。但如果有机会我一定会第一时间跳上飞机,回到中国。我们希望疫苗会加快事情的进展。

问:The Policy Planningstuff of the State Department published a new report, the Elements of the ChinaChallenge, last Wednesday. I read the report and I foundthat the tone is like 90% Trumpian and 10% Democratic. The report is stillemphasizing the great power competition but focusing more on the rule-basedinternational order, which was hardly even mentioned in the 2017 NationalSecurity Strategy report. What is your opinion about the new report?

美国国务院政策规划办公室1117日发布了新的报告《中国挑战的方方面面》。我看了然后发现这份报告的论调大概90%还是川普风格的10%的民主党风格。报告还在强调大国竞争,但是更加关注所谓以规则为基础的国际秩序2017年的《国家安全战略》报告,基本上没有提到这一点。你如何看到这份报告?

答:In my opinion, thereport is quite positive. First, Trumpsaw the  relations between China and theUS from a great power competition point of view.But the report said that Chinashould be viewed as challenge and not as great power competition. It underlinedthe need to focus more on the US economy. I think Biden realizes that the USfirst needs to heal the American soul before tackling issues abroad, which isthe sensible thing to do.

我的观点是,我对这个报告持积极态度。首先,川普从大国竞争的角度来看待中美关系。但是报告说,中国应该被当作一个挑战,而不是大国竞争。报告强调更加关注美国经济。我认为拜登意识到了美国首先需要“拯救”它的“灵魂”(注:出自拜登的竞选宣传,“拯救美国灵魂”),然后才是解决国外的问题,这样做才是明智的。

Right after the USelection, the entire world was looking at the US and wondering whetherdemocracy is still really working, given all their domestic issues. Focusing onissues back home in the US is the first step to improve China relations,instead of attacking China right in the chest. Second, the report alsoemphasizes the need for alliances, which is huge. I think everyone expects thatBiden will move away from unilateralism and try to bring back the multilateralkind of framework in response to China.

美国大选之后,鉴于美国的国内问题,全世界都在盯着美国,都在想民主制度是否还在运作。重新关注美国国内问题,而不是与中国针锋相对,是改善对华关系的第一步。其次,报告还强调盟友的极端重要性。我认为每个人都期待拜登会远离单边主义,在回应中国时尝试多边主义的框架。

A couple of days ago,Europe has released another report underlining that they would like to build atechnology and trade council with the US in response to China. That goes handin hand with the multilateral framework that Biden would like to build.Alliances will  focus first on trade andtechnology and then on human rights or other type of issues–if they will touchupon those issues at all.

就在几天前,欧洲也发布了一个报告,称他们要和美国共同设立一个科技贸易委员会,以便应对中国。这本质上就是要纳入拜登想要建立的多边主义框架之内。这个联盟将首先关注贸易、科技,然后是人权和其他议题,如果有的话。

And you asked meabout the rules-based international order. Biden will frame his approach aroundthe rules-based international order. The conflict between China and the US isbasically about the nature of these rules. There is a difference between whatChina and the US sees as acceptable. On some issues, they are actuallylike-minded. For example, when I've been to Beijing, I've seen that China isvery concerned about climate change and has taken appropriate measures toprotect the climate. Just a couple of years ago, when going out in Beijing, thesky was pitch black due to the smog. Nowadays, the pollution has drasticallyimproved. The thing is that improving the climate was never forced upon them.China has realized itself that they need to change something if they want tokeep their society and economy healthy.

你刚刚问我如何看待基于规则的国际体系。拜登的路线都围绕着基于规则的国际体。中国和美国的冲突基本上就是围绕着这些规则,也就是什么是中国可以接受、而美国也愿意接受的。我觉得在一些问题上他们的目标都是一致的。举例来说,我曾经去过北京,看到中国对气候变化很在意,为保护环境做出了许多努力。前几年,在北京出个门,因为雾霾很严重,天都是黑的。现在,污染状况显著改善了。问题是,中国改善环境不是被人强迫的。中国意识到如果想要社会和经济健康发展,需要做出一些改变。

The US cannot forceChina to take part in the rules-based international order. It's more aboutChina internally and how their economy and people will demand  change. But the US can lead by example todemonstrate that the rules-based international order is better for China. Therules-based international system suffers from the perception that it only worksfor the West. Biden needs to change this perception by highlighting that it isin everyone’s interest to adhere to thoserules. He can only achieve this through diplomacy and leadership and notthrough force. They will find some common ground on certain issues. I thinkthey can work together on the pandemic, climate change, and even trade andinvestment. But if the US chooses to press China on human rights violations,Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc., I think that it will lead to deep divergences betweenthe US and China.

美国无法强迫中国参与以规则为基础的国际秩序。更大的力量来自中国内部,中国的经济和民众如何需要改变。但是美国可以树立榜样,显示以规则为基础的国际秩序对中国有利。以规则为基础的国际秩序遭遇挫败,因为有人认为这只对西方有利。拜登需要转变这个看法,通过强调遵守规则符合各自的利益。他只能通过外交和领导力来达成,不能通过强力。中美会在某些领域找到共同语言。我认为两国可以在应对疫情、气候变化,甚至贸易和投资方面合作。但是如果美国选择在人权、台湾、香港问题上对中国施压,我认为这会导致两国更加疏远。

问:The next question isabout the timing. The Trump administration is outgoing and the Bidenadministration is incoming. Why did the State Departmentpublish the report right now? What is the purpose? Does Trump administrationtry to leave its mark on the America-Sino policy?

下一个问题是关于时机。川普要下台了,拜登快上台了。为啥国务院现在发布这份报告?他们的目的是什么?川普政府是不是想在美中关系政策上留下印记?

答:AsI previously said, I see the report in a positive light. I don’t think the report is to 90% guided byTrumpian values or that there is an issue with the timing. It actually shows toa certain degree the independence of the US Department of State, which in thisreport went against the unilateral mission of Trump. Biden can really work withthis document, although he will most likely choose modify it.

我对此的态度还是很积极的。我不认为这份报告是90%川普主义的,或者发布的时机有何问题。事实上,这显示了美国的国务院有它的独立性,不赞同川普那样做出单边主义的行为。我认为拜登可以从这份文件着手,虽然说更有可能要进行一些修改。

Biden will first askhimself how much political capital he has and then, consequently, will adjustthe guidelines of the report. What concerned me was that the report also putmore emphasis on the military. As you know, Trump heightened the military withChina by selling arms to Taiwan and different parties in the South China Sea.Biden might take a more diplomatic approach, even if it deviates from the suggestionsin the report. I would not read too much into the report. Biden will certainlyframe his entire China policy around it. He might actually implement moreObama-era type of policies, which tried to find mutual ground and not castChina as the enemy number one.

拜登首先会问,他有多少政治资本,然后会调整报告提出的意见。这里面是有回旋的余地的。我比较关心的是,报告里同时强调了军事。你知道,川普在中国军事方面关注很多,他向台湾和中国南海地区的各方售卖武器。拜登会采取更多外交手段,甚至会偏离报告的建议。我不会过分解读这份报告。拜登肯定会围绕这份报告构建中国政策,他也许会采取更多奥巴马时代的政策,就是试图与中国寻找可以合作的地方,而不是把中国看成头号敌人。

问: Do you think Trumpwill do more harm to America-Sino relationship in the remaining days of hisadministration?

你认为川普在剩下的日子里会做更多伤害美中关系的事情吗?

答:Well,he already started causing harm on the domestic level. Trump tries to removesome Obama-era domestic policies, like DACA, and aims to push the court battlesup to the Supreme Court, not necessarily to safe his campaign, but to ensurethat Republicans will have an easier time of winning elections in the future.Internationally speaking, Trump has done and will continue to do a lot ofdamage. Trump has put more Chinese companies on the sanction list and hasissued an executive order to ban US companies to merge with Chinese companiesthat have ties to the military. All of this will make it harder for Biden toestablish good relations with China.

是的,他做的事已经给美国造成了很多损失。他抛弃了很多奥巴马时代的政策,比如“暂缓遣返青少年计划”(DACA),还想要把官司打上最高法院,不仅是要寻求连任,而且还要共和党在未来能够更容易地取得选举胜利。从国际事务来说,川普已经造成了很多伤害,而且还会造成更多的伤害。川普已经对很多中国公司下了禁令,比如他下达行政命令,禁止美国公司与某个与中国军方有联系的中国公司合并。这一切都会让拜登恢复对华关系造成更多困难。

So I expect theattacks on China to continue because the more damage is done, the better forRepublicans. They will use every opportunity available to frame Biden as beingweak on China to rally their base. And the media will gladly feed on thisnonsense.

我认为这个情况会持续下去,因为造成的伤害越多,对共和党就越有利。共和党利用一切机会把拜登的形象塑造成对中国很软弱,以便动员共和党的选民。而媒体会大肆报道这些胡说八道。

问:And what do youthink Biden administrations China policy willbe like?

你认为拜登政府的中国政策会是什么样?

答:I'm confident that Biden will try to build stronger and more equal relationswith China. Various newspapers actually have opined that China would prefer asecond Trump presidency because it wouldn’t hurt China as much. Biden’sgoal to build alliances would hurt China much more. Sure, there's no doubt ifBiden builds an alliance with like-minded countries for the sole purpose ofpunishing, China will face domestic problems. China’s economy is still heavily exportand an alliance of Australia, Japan, India and the United Sates, making up 30%of world GDP seeking to block China, is enough to cripple the Chinese economy.That’s why Xi Jinping’s latest dual-circulationeconomic policy focus more on domestic issues. He essentially tries to improvedomestic demand to be less dependent on other countries.

我对此很乐观,拜登政府会和中国建立一个更牢固、更平等的关系。多家媒体表示中国更愿意川普连任,因为那不会伤害中国太多。而拜登要建立联盟,那么中国受到的伤害会更大。显然,如果拜登与想法相似的国家建立了联盟,仅仅为了惩罚中国,那毫无疑问的,中国会面临国内问题。中国经济依旧十分依赖对外出口。如果澳大利亚、日本、美国联合起起来对付中国,他们占据了全球30%多的GDP,那么这足够让中国经济瘫痪。那就是为什么习近平最近提出双循环的经济政策,更多关注国内议题。他在尝试改善国内需求,减少对其他国家的依赖。

Xi Jinping’s fears, however, will not materialize becauseBiden does not seek to block China as Trump did. He will try to findconcessions with China and try to build a better relationship based on mutualrespect. Besides trying to work mutually on climate change, the pandemic andtrade, Biden also wants to re-establish reciprocal diplomatic relations andallow students and research exchanges between China and the US.

然而,习的担忧不会成真,因为拜登不会封锁中国,像川普那样。拜登与中国一道,各退一步,试图给予互相尊重改善与中国的关系。拜登不但会在气候变化、疫情和贸易方面同中国合作,还希望重建互利的外交关系,允许两国学生和研究人员来往。

问:Do you think Biden Administration will get back toTPP?

你认为拜登政府会回到TPP吗?

答:That'sa very good question. I was thinking about that because the RCEP was ratifiedabout a week ago, which strengthens trade relations between Japan, Australia,China and other Asia-Pacific nations. India and the US are not part of thisagreement. The TPP, while similar in nature, was not exactly the same type ofagreement. It focused much more on technology, IP, and merger issues inresponse to China. A TPP-style of agreement will eventually emerge but mostlikely not under the Biden presidency. The US Senate, which approval isnecessary to implement any trade agreement, is controlled by Republicans andthey are not particularly interested in multilateralism. A TPP agreement wouldcertainly fit in well with Biden’s America and, if handled withcare, it would be accepted by China. But I am afraid that Republicans don’t see it this way.

这是个很好的问题。我其实也在思考这个问题,因为一周之前RCEP(区域全面经济伙伴关系协定)刚刚确认通过,这份协议会强化日本、澳大利亚、中国和其他亚太国家的贸易联系。印度和美国没有参与。TPP与此类似,但是有所区别。TPP更加关注技术、知识产权,以及合并问题,为了应对中国。TPP风格的协议最终会出现,但是拜登政府不太可能这样做。美国参议院还处于共和党的控制,而任何贸易协定都需要在参议院通过,参议院共和党对多边主义没有兴趣。TPP协议很符合拜登的美国,如果操作得当,也能被中国接受。但是恐怕共和党不这样看。

It'svery hard to give an accurate picture at this point of what America under Bidenis going to do in response to China. Biden has already filled some crucial positions. He appointed AntonyBlinken, a US department of state veteran, as Secretary of State and LindaGreenfield, also a career diplomat, as UN ambassador. Once the administrationis completely set up and the political mood in the US is clear, we can havemore answers. I really hope that the relations get better because some of thebiggest issues nowadays can only be solved by US and China working  together.

目前很难看看清拜登政府要如何应对中国。拜登已经有了一些关键的人事任命。他提名国务院老人安东尼·布林肯(Antony Blinken)担任国务卿,职业外交家琳达·格林菲尔德(Linda Greenfield)担任驻联合国代表。一旦政府班子完全组建起来,美国政治气氛明确了,我们就能有更多的答案。我希望中美关系改善,因为当今世界面临的一些重大问题只能由美国和中国合作应对。

参考文献

美国国务院. (2020年11月17日). 中国挑战的方方面面[R]. 检索日期: 2020年12月11日,来源: 美国之声: https://docs.voanews.eu/zh-CN/2020/11/17/071aaec7-e25e-445a-b72d-9e61a4ba65ce.pdf

 

 

 

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